It’s funny how we as NFL fans fall for same early-season narrative traps year after year– but then again, it’s a week-to-week kind of a league and we’d be drab pragmatists not to. A quick quarter into the regular season, and all of a sudden we’re beginning to see what we have in some teams and woefully don’t in others. Let’s look at some teams who have set themselves on a positive trajectory heading into week 5–the first week of team BYE’s–and others who seem to be all aboard an express train to disaster.

Risers: Steelers, Jaguars, Bears, Chiefs

It seemed like a pipe dream for the Aaron Rodgers-led Steelers to make waves in a division headlined by the likes of Lamar Jackson & Joe Burrow, but we seem to willfully forget the perennial gut-punch that is the National Football League; following an early-season exit from Burrow and a slow start for the Ravens coupled with a Lamar injury (out 2-3 weeks), the 3-1 Steelers suddenly sit atop the AFC North. TJ Watt and the rest of the Pittsburgh defense have woken up following a couple sluggish early-season performances, and Arthur Smith’s ever-conservative offense will help generate and protect some mundane leads. Kaleb Johnson entering the doghouse while Kenneth Gainwell shines was not on my 2025 NFL bingo card, but the Steelers seem to have comfortably established a healthy committee between Warren/Gainwell with an improved receiving presence in Metcalf to suggest their offense can do more than pull their weight.

The Jags are a neat case of an immediate coaching/front office turnaround. Trent Baalke being the only thing holding Liam Coen back from taking the job in Jacksonville should tell you all you need to know about the success of his tenure, and Doug Pederson had clearly lost his fast ball (or ambition) as an NFL head coach. Bringing in Coen and new GM James Gladstone has already paid dividends, as the 3-1 Jaguars appear to be on track for a playoff race in what’s become a much improved division. The defense is predictably better than 2024, and Coen’s play calling coupled with a plethora of offensive weapons should keep competitive hopes alive for Jacksonville fans.

Ben Johnson brought with him one of the biggest organizational restructures to a culture (and fanbase) desperate for remodeling. Patience doesn’t exactly resonate with fanbases, but the process can already be seen following a 2-2 start that’s seen victories come from an offensive blowout & a gritty, all-hands (literally) win. Rome Odunze is the first Bear to have 4 TD’s through the first 4 games since Walter Payton, and a long-awaited offensive identity rooted in solid QB play is beginning to form. The defense–projected to be a top unit in the league–has proven to be the weaker side of the ball without Jaylon Johnson, resulting it what will likely continue to be shootout games with the Bears playing from behind and Caleb being forced to step up. The question isn’t ability with Caleb Williams as much as it is sustained ability through consistent play, and it’s hard to think of a better HC to lead him on the path to success than Johnson.

As much as I lament it, the Chiefs are doing what they always do and seem to be improving each and every week. Being without their top 2 receivers for 2 tough matchups made them appear as a dynasty that hit the dreaded point of regression, but the beatdown on Baltimore reminded us that they haven’t missed an AFC Championship game since 2018 (Jags/Pats). The Chiefs will have Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy catching passes from Mahomes in the very near future, and the 1st place Bills will be looking over their shoulder for the only thing that’s held them back from a Super Bowl appearance with Josh Allen.

Fallers: Vikings, Ravens, Jets, Raiders

The Vikings are a QB away from Super Bowl contention, which made the decision to let Sam Darnold walk that much more questionable (14-3 with Vikings in 2024). J.J. McCarthy’s sudden injury announcement immediately following an ugly Week 2 loss led some to believe it could’ve been a silent benching in favor of Carson Wentz, who’s 1-1 since stepping in as the starter. Following their Week 4 loss to the Steelers in Dublin, it’s apparent that Carson Wentz will not suffice as a legitimate option for the Vikings to roll out in a fearsome division, and Minnesota might very will be in a spot to trade for a QB before the deadline as a win-now roster awaits answers at the position. If not, the Vikings have dropped ugly losses under both of their QB’s, and the rest of the roster talent doesn’t necessarily reflect a strong level of patience/tolerance for a slow-developing young QB.

Derrick Henry’s fumbles were a low-hanging (and somewhat fair) scapegoat for a pair of early-season losses for the Ravens, but following a blowout loss to the Chiefs while losing Lamar for 2-3 weeks in the process, the Ravens have fires to put out and those don’t include their future HOF RB. The defense has been uncharacteristically bad for John Harbaugh’s standards, starting the first 4 weeks ranked 30th in defensive EPA– but a quick glance at the historic performance of the Ravens defense over the past 2 decades shows trends of slow starts converting into strong finishes. That strong play might need to start sooner than later, with their matchups spanning over Lamar’s injury including the Texans & Rams; there’s always time & room for conference standing reshuffles, but starting out 1-5 would be an incredibly deep hole to dig out of coming out of their Week 7 BYE.

I’m not going to waste much brainpower on the Jets since frankly, they haven’t done that much to deserve it sitting at 0-4. I really want to like Aaron Glenn, but the premature sideline celebration against Tampa plus a talented defensive unit that’s averaging an allowed 330 yards/game makes it hard to find reasons to believe he’s going to be in New York for more than a cup of coffee. Justin Fields has started enough football games for the world to know that even in the most QB-protective playcalling schemes (like Pittsburgh), he can’t stay in the pocket and relies on broken plays. That’s not exactly an answer for a team in perennial franchise guy search mode, but at the very least for the dejected fanbase, they will have yet another shot at a high pick in the draft. One of these guys has got to work for them……….. right?

I had high expectations for a new-look Raiders team, but don’t be fooled by their Week 1 win against New England– these guys suck. Ashton Jeanty had his breakout game against Chicago while putting up 3 scores in the process, but it looks like we’re in for another year of Maxx Crosby having absolutely zero back-end support. The Raiders have many gaps to fill over the next couple of seasons, but none more important than a franchise QB; Geno Smith looks like he lost whatever magic revived his career in Seattle despite his Pete Carroll reunion, and looks like a candidate to be benched sooner than later (with Kenny Pickett as his backup). It’s a shame that talent like Brock Bowers, Ashton Jeanty, and Maxx Crosby have to waste away a year on a franchise still in reset mode, but the good news is that the Raiders might be an offseason away from being “better”. Plus, they’re not the Jets.