2024 was a unique season for the NFL in many respects, beginning at the draft where 6 teams would take a QB in the first round (first-time since 1983, which saw HOFers John Elway, Jim Kelly, and Dan Marino land with their respective franchises). Outside of Deshaun Watson’s torn achilles and Trevor Lawrence’s concussion/shoulder injury that kept him out for the final 7 games of the season, QB’s remained relatively healthy following a 2023 season that saw the likes of Joe Burrow, Aaron Rodgers, Daniel Jones, Anthony Richardson, & Kirk Cousins miss extended time. 

20 out of the last 23 NFL seasons saw teams that finished or tied for last place in their division go on to win the division the following year– underscoring the year-to-year parity in the NFL thanks to the “Not For Long” transitory nature of the league. However, 2024 was the first season since 2019 where that ceased to be the case– following a season-long theme of disparity between the top and bottom-half teams. By week 6, a picture had already been painted of the teams trending to finish above .500 and put themselves in the playoff hunt, and there weren’t many significant mid-season turnarounds that altered those projections. 

In Laymen’s, half of the league was bad and a third of the league was very bad (favorites covered the spread 53.9% of the time, which was the most since 2017). Parity should return to more exciting levels, and I think the final few weeks of the regular season will determine the fate of far more teams than we’ve had in the playoff hunt for several seasons. 

AFC North

The Ravens will win this division barring any offensive setbacks, namely any injury/limitation to Lamar or Derrick Henry. The signing of Jaire Alexander to support a CB room that already includes Nate Wiggins and Marlon Humphrey gives them the defensive depth of a championship contender, and if Keaton Mitchell can reclaim his rookie-year flashes, there’s a case to be made that Baltimore could be the most-improved playoff team from 2024– which is a daunting prospect for the rest of the top-heavy AFC.

The Bengals should be a frontrunner for a wildcard spot if they’re able to open the first 4 weeks sitting at .500 at the very worst. They addressed the perennial slow-starts to the regular season by giving the 1st-team offense pre-season reps, and were able to retain their first-round pick selection in Shemar Stewart following some contractual-language holdout drama. Trey Hendrickson holding out/being traded would not help the cause, but we’ve yet to see a player of his caliber in recent memory not reach an agreement before the clock strikes midnight. When midnight will be is the question, but a healthy Joe Burrow and an even slightly improved defense should be enough to end the team’s 2-year playoff drought. 

It’s been a frustrating stretch of years to be a Steelers fan, with one of the league’s most competent and well-run organizations being in QB purgatory following the 18-season run with Big Ben at the helm. This sunsetting version of Aaron Rodgers is still seemingly the best option they’ve had since, but I find it hard to picture a world where the AFC North has 3 playoff teams in 2025– leading to the conclusion that this season could be both Rodgers & Tomlin’s swan songs with the team. 

The Browns are an objectively hilarious football team. As of the point I’m writing this, they have a QB room that includes: Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett, Shedeur Sanders, Dillon Gabriel, and Deshaun Watson (as of the date of publishing this, Pickett has been traded to the Raiders). While the jury is still out on Sanders & Gabriel at the pro level, the rest of the room has started in at least one playoff game– which could very well result in some future draft capital pending the health/availability of starting QB’s prior to the trade deadline. By trading back from taking Travis Hunter, the Browns got themselves a brick shithouse in Mason Graham and set themselves up comfortably for 2026 with two 1st-round picks. Who knows where Stefanski stands with the organization at this point, but Cleveland seems positioned to take a QB in the 2026 draft so any potential long-term discovery between Sanders or Gabriel is gravy for them. 

AFC South

This division belongs to the Texans who have sported back-to-back seasons with playoff wins under the Stroud/Ryans regime. Houston continued to surround Stroud with receiving weapons in the 2025 draft–largely due in-part to Tank Dell’s injury–and are anchored by a competent defense with a young secondary headlined by Stingley Jr. & Lassiter. Mixon’s health will play a huge role in that offense, and the question of Nick Chubb’s abilities post-injury might be answered as early as week 1. I don’t think Houston is at a point where they’re true contenders for the AFC title, but as long as Stroud is healthy, they will be a thorn in the side of a competitive conference. 

Liam Coen was a good hire for the Jaguars and I think he’s going to bring excitement to what’s been a pretty lukewarm offense during Trevor Lawrence’s run with the franchise. If he’s able to duplicate even 80% of the rushing production he orchestrated between White/Irving with Etienne/Bigsby, the aerial attack with Brian Thomas Jr. & Travis Hunter will give Trevor Lawrence the most skilled-positional support he’s had in his NFL career. Despite that, I still have to see that their defense isn’t going to give up 30 points a game before I can throw them in the hunt for a cutthroat AFC Wildcard spot. 

While I don’t think the Titans will win many football games in 2025, they should show enough promise led by Cam Ward to provide some excitement and promise for future seasons. I’ll stand by Ward being the guy there, but he won’t bring the Stroud or Daniels transcending effect in his rookie season and doesn’t have a supporting cast that could move him past .500. Nonetheless, the Titans should be less dreadful to watch this year despite not having any primetime games– but still remain a team working their way out of the bottom half. 

The Colts are going to be a bottom team in the league this year, and I could see Shane Steichen losing his job midseason. There were no winners in the benching of Anthony Richardson for Joe Flacco–who would go on to drop 2 games before the Colts returned to Richardson–and now following a QB competition with offseason acquisition Daniel Jones, Steichen opted to once again keep Richardson on the sidelines. With his agent vocalizing distrust with the organization while citing noticeable improvement from Richardson’s performance in camp, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Richardson traded early in the year after the Colts drink the Kool-Aid on a couple vanilla Daniel Jones starts. For fantasy football purposes, that entire offense with the exceptions of JT & Warren seem doomed for another season of inconsistency and wildly inefficient QB play. 

AFC West

As a Chargers fan, it pains me to call my shot on the Broncos winning the division. Bo Nix gets the ball out fast and can process quick enough to be the key to a damn efficient Sean Payton offense. Moving on from Javonte Williams through signing J.K. Dobbins & drafting R.J. Harvey provides far more upside to the run game, and with the recent departure of Devaughn Vele, Denver will look for Troy Franklin or Marvin Mims to emerge as a consistent 2nd-option behind Courtland Sutton. That said, it’s their defense I see as being the divisional winning x-factor; they’re poised to be even better following a top-5 2024 showing with the offseason signings of former-49ers Tre Greenlaw & Talanoa Hufanga. There will be thin margins in the West, but Denver will take the division by 2 (or fewer) games. 

The Chargers don’t make sense on-paper to finish 2nd in this division given the loss of Rashawn Slater for the season–and potentially beyond–with the most glaring spots on a porous offensive line still unaddressed. Their WR room was replenished between drafting Harris/Lambert-Smith and signing Keenan Allen, along with an upgraded rushing attack with Omarion Hampton & Najee “Popeye” Harris— which will undoubtedly give Herbert (who led the NFL with only 3 interceptions in the 2024 regular season) more offensive runway and play-extension opportunity behind a line that will surely demand such ability. 

Every year, we find ourselves in the same position justifying how The Chiefs will dwindle from Championship relevance. As long as Patrick Mahomes is under center, they will always have the Superbowl window open until proven otherwise– but the strength of this year’s divisional defensive forces will challenge Mahomes & Reid to a degree we haven’t really seen since the start of the Mahomes era. Dropping any divisional matchup will be costly for the AFC West teams, and I foresee Kansas City finally closing the door on the 9-season chokehold they’ve had. 

The Raiders are still a young franchise QB away from any type of real conference contention, but this year should see the most competent version of the team since Jon Gruden was jettisoned from the league. Pete Carroll will bring a long-lost sense of pride back to that locker room, and the foundation of Jeanty & Bowers led by Geno Smith will ensure the offense can keep the games close in ways that Jimmy G, Aidan O’Connell, and Gardner Minshew never could. 

AFC East

The Bills have done just about everything right over the course of their team’s competitive life under Josh Allen, building a well-rounded squad around the league’s 2024 MVP through strong offensive line play and a defensive-minded head coach in Sean McDermott  who’s been able to sustain a top-10 defense throughout almost all of his tenure. 2024 saw the first major nosedive in defensive production, finishing in the bottom-half in points allowed throughout the regular season– which you’d think has to put some pressure on McDermott to not only find that ever-elusive AFC Championship win, but also keep the defense proficient enough to justify his keep. 

The Patriots 2024 season was more or less a throw-out year under Jerod Mayo, but saw enough good from Drake Maye to suggest he can blossom with the right offensive help. That help came in the form of bringing back long-time Patriots OC (and short-time HC) Josh McDaniels under new HC Mike Vrabel’s staff, along with the additions of Stefon Diggs, Will Campbell, Treveon Henderson, Austin Hooper, & Morgan Moses to. This will be a more efficient offense with better personnel, and their lowly 2024 defense will see progression under Vrabel while stacking up against otherwise regressed divisional competition.

The Jets will lose more games than they win and will have some incredibly wishy-washy offensive production under Justin Fields, but they’ll be anchored by a defense that will give trouble to even the best of teams. That said, color me skeptical on Aaron Glenn; though Glenn should have a stronger grip on the locker room than Saleh had any chance of ever having, Saleh’s defense always kept them in games– so much to a point in 2023 that we thought (for a second) Zach Wilson could get that team to the playoffs. Defense hasn’t won championships in East Rutherford, and even with a mild season from Fields, the issue with the New York Jets will continue to be finding their QB in the draft. 

The Dolphins are in such an interesting situation; by all accounts, their offense has the core skill position guys to suggest undoubted playoff promise, but surprisingly have not won a single game since rolling out Tua under center. That pressure is culminating in 2025, with both players and coaches losing patience even at the public level with Mike McDaniel championing death in his press conferences while Tyreek is playing backseat OC. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this team’s patented hot-start to the season book-ended with the offseason departures of Mike McDaniel, Tua Tagovailoa, and Tyreek Hill– but time will tell. Some of the more optimistic news to come out of Miami this summer has been the return of Darren Waller– and you can make of that what you will.