Photo: St. Louis Blues

It wasn’t always easy, but the St. Louis Blues have clinched their spot in the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the first time since the 2021-22 season.

It didn’t seem like it would take until game 82 when the Blues won 12 straight games, but they answered three straight losses with a decisive win over Utah to solidify their spot among the 16 teams that will fight for the hardest trophy to win in sports.

During the 6-1 win on Tuesday, it was appearing as if the Blues would be the first wild card and would be heading to face the Vegas Golden Knights. However, Joel Eriksson Ek of the Minnesota Wild scored in the final minute of regulation, giving the Wild the point they needed to clinch their playoff berth and finish ahead of the Blues.

As a result, the Blues will travel north to face the President’s Trophy winning Winnipeg Jets, whom the Blues bested in six games en route to their 2019 Stanley Cup.

While the tale of the tape isn’t the same as 2019, as the Jets are likely to be heavy favorites, three key factors will help to determine whether or not the Blues can make history repeat itself.

Photo: St. Louis Blues

Experience/Recent History

Why it hurts the Blues– While the Blues have had their season end at game 82 the last two seasons, the Jets have enjoyed two straight playoff appearances. There’s no way to know what playoff hockey is like until you make it in, and while the Jets’ entire roster is battle tested, the Blues have seven players on their roster that have never gotten into an NHL playoff game. Aside from Brayden Schenn, no Blues forward has over 18 playoff points in their career. Playoff hockey is a major change from the regular season, and the Blues don’t have much time to get adjusted.

Why it helps the Blues– Sure the Jets have gotten the playoff action that the Blues have envied over the last two years, but their performances have left a lot to be desired. The Jets lost in five games to the Golden Knights in 2023 and suffered the same fate to Colorado last year. The last playoff series win for either of these teams was the Blues beating the Wild three years ago. To be fair, history only matters so much in a four-to-seven game series; but only the Seattle Kraken and Columbus Blue Jackets have fewer series wins than the Jets.

Photo: St. Louis Blues

Injuries/Depth Scoring

Why it hurts the Blues– It doesn’t take a genius to point out that the Blues are a worse team without Dylan Holloway. It took a couple of games and reworking the top-six to come close to replacing his production. The Jets, meanwhile, scored the third most goals in the NHL this season. They boast four 20+ goal scorers and 11 double-digit goal scorers, as well as Neil Pionk who produced at an over half a point-per-game on the back end. The Jets don’t have a weak spot in their top-six, including Kyle Connor, who has always dominated the Blues. The Jets have both quality and quantity, making them all the more dangerous.

Why it helps the Blues– Holloway isn’t the only key player injured, as the Jets have had to deal with Nikolaj Ehlers and Gabe Vilardi both going down. The Blues’ offense has seen a night-and-day difference under Jim Montgomery, as they ended the regular season with five guys scoring over 20 goals. Not included in that group is Zack Bolduc, who scored 19 goals after Drew Bannister was fired, Colton Parayko, who scored a career-high 16 goals while missing time with a knee scope and Jimmy Snuggerud, a newcomer who just scored two goals for Minnesota in the NCAA regionals. At their best, the Blues have shown to get offensive production out of all four lines.

Photo: St. Louis Blues

Goaltending

Why it hurts the Blues– Confidently, Connor Helleybuck is the best goalie in the NHL. He’s going to win his second straight Vezina trophy and could very well win the Hart as well. You can just read his stats- 46 wins, .924 save percentage, 2.02 GAA and eight shutouts- and get the point that he is the best in the league. Very rarely does a team boast a goalie that can singlehandedly shut down the opposition on a nightly basis, but Helleybuck can. To beat the Jets, you have to beat Helleybuck; simple as that.

Why it helps the Blues– As brilliant as Connor Helleybuck has been in the last two regular seasons, he has not been the same goalie in the playoffs. He hasn’t been the lone reason they’ve lost, but a combined .875 save percentage and 4.28 GAA is not what the Jets have come to expect. On the flip side, Jordan Binnington has a knack for the big moments. In fact, when he carried Canada to the Four Nations championship, who was the American goaltender he beat? That’s right, it was Helleybuck. Here’s the truth- the Jets have the goalie advantage in this series. However, if Binnington continues his strong play since the break, the Blues are going to have a shot.